Is Thursday’s Snow Storm Sliding To The South???

It’s still early, but it looks that way.  In fact, here is what the National Weather Service was predicting early this morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017

We are still seeing fluctuations in the models for the Wednesday
through Friday time frame, but there is certainly a trend toward
a non-warning worthy event for the bulk of our forecast area. In
fact, a sliver extending from west central MN toward the western
Twin Cities metro could end up with barely anything at all.

What originally appeared to be a classic Colorado low system has
become less organized/phased and weaker over the last couple model
runs. The surface trough associated with the southern stream wave has
slipped farther south and weakened, with progged snowfall
accumulations on deterministic solutions having dwindled to around
or below 3 inches in most cases. The area for the highest amounts
is relatively unchanged (southern MN toward central WI), but the
appropriate headline is trending toward that of an advisory rather
than a warning. The first round looks to just barely clip our
northern area on Wednesday afternoon/evening, and then the second
on Thursday/Thursday evening as weak frontogenesis moves overhead.
It is the second round that could potentially need an advisory,
but given we are still 48 hours out, there is time to refine if
and where that is needed.

What is more certain however is that we are going to get COLD over
the weekend, and even COLDER by Tuesday when both GFS and ECMWF
solutions feature 925-850mb temps around -30C over the area
(1040mb High). Saturday will be the "warmest" day of the weekend,
with highs from 5 to 15. As the Arctic air settles into the
region, highs will gradually degrade about 3 to 5 degrees each
day, which unfortunately means sub-zero highs for Tuesday. Lows
from 5 below to 15 below will be common as well for Christmas and
Tuesday mornings. While this isn`t record- breaking cold, it looks
to be the coldest Christmas in about two decades (since 1996 for
highs, and since 2000 for lows).

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